SportNews columnist Laura Hunter tackles talking points from the latest Premier League matchweek, with a special look at everything going wrong at Anfield and what Arne Slot must do to get Liverpool functioning as a team again.
The blueprint was established weeks ago. Hit Liverpool with direct, long balls, bypass their press and win the odd set-play or two, and the reigning champions are there for the taking. So it proved again against Nottingham Forest.
Arne Slot's side have lost half of their 12 Premier League games this season and are 11th in the table. It's exactly where they deserve to be. Games had been lost to and before the trend became a pattern, but it was a 2-1 loss to in October where flaws were exposed in the most systematic sense.
Liverpool lost a goal within the first minute as Bryan Mbeumo ran off the back of Virgil van Dijk, punching through the heart of a lost and leggy defence. Amad Diallo was freed with long pass after long pass. Before Harry Maguire then struck the winner late from the second phase of a set-piece. We've seen it all before and again since.
And the situation has the potential to get worse before it gets better. Based on xPts - a metric used to estimate the number of points a team should have based on quality of chances created and conceded - Liverpool's tally of 18, 13 fewer than this stage last year, is spot on.
But they overachieved by roughly seven points when winning all five of their opening games with dramatic, often lucky, late goals. From their seven league outings since they have earned just three when data suggests they should have closer to 10.
Underachievement is rife from back to front. This can no longer generously be deemed a blip. It's been some 33 years since Liverpool shipped this many goals (20) in their opening 12 games. Forest landed their biggest margin of victory at Anfield in their club's history at the weekend, under the guidance of a so-called 'defensive coach' in Sean Dyche.
The top end doesn't offer much solace, either. Bournemouth and Brighton have both scored more goals than Liverpool, which is no slight on either of those sides, only noted to illustrate the deficiencies of the league's most expensively assembled forward line.
Liverpool's strikers have contributed just three goals all season (all Hugo Ekitike). As a team, their conversion rate (9.78 per cent) ranks 15th. It's worse than Everton's. Again, no shade, included purely for contextual relevance. According to transfermarket, Everton's forward line (permanent players only) has a market value of £125m compared to Liverpool's £429m worth of talent. Output is not stacking up.
Federico Chiesa has averaged the most shots on target per 90 (1.29) of any Liverpool player and yet has only played 139 minutes - all from the bench. Obscurities can be observed everywhere. Virgil van Dijk's shooting accuracy (40 per cent) is incomprehensibly better than Mohamed Salah's (33 per cent). Of the 16 dribbles Salah attempted against Forest only four were successful.
Combined, the Egyptian and £125m-rated Alexander Isak have missed 10 big chances this season, albeit Salah is at least creating chances which cannot be said of the latter.
Isak's form is a big issue. Not only is he not scoring, he's also not competing, losing every one of the seven duels he contested in defeat to Forest. He is the only Liverpool player in the Premier League era to end on the losing side in each of his first four starts. Performances will tell you that is for good reason.
Uncomfortably for Slot, Isak is one of a long list of under-performers across this baron run. Ibrahima Konate is another to draw significant criticism, full-back continues to be a problem position and imbalances in midfield mean Liverpool are too easy to play through.
There are obvious drawbacks to stationing your most athletic central midfielder, Dominik Szoboszlai, at right-back. Physicality issues were evident against Manchester City last week and examined brilliantly by .
At times when Forest passed and moved at pace, particularly evident for their second goal, Liverpool's players were bypassed like training cones. The third goal was more frightening still, born out of complete idleness, exposing a lack of anticipation from some of Liverpool's most reliant performers, Szoboszlai and Ryan Gravenberch included. The opener was from a corner, their ninth set-piece goal conceded.
When Liverpool did break in possession they played within Forest's structure, falling into traps set by a clever Dyche system. Forest only had 26 per cent of the ball. "We changed the tactical style massively," Dyche said, "I told the players: 'we're not passing out, don't worry about that, we're going long'."
Slot was outwitted. And should not be immune to questioning just because of last season's achievements, however special. A few decisions deserve particular scrutiny, starting with Ekitike - fresh from scoring a magical first senior goal for France during the break - on the bench. Isak's sluggishness only made the selection choice more bizarre.
In-game changes failed to impact, too, as noted by Slot himself: "We take an extra risk, but it didn't work out really well because two seconds later we were 3-0 down." By the end of the game Liverpool were playing with two midfielders across their backline, a fundamental failing of the summer window, where £450m was spent without addressing defensive cover.
Apathy engulfed Anfield on Saturday as if the result was expected, mirrored in no small part by the brittleness of a team whose confidence is on the floor. They have been unable to recover any points from losing positions so far this term. "I can never come up with enough excuses for us to have the results we have," Slot concluded.
No doubt Slot has to change tack. Gary Neville has urged the Dutchman to make tough calls: "Slot is a brilliant manager with real class, but he's got to reverse and do something different - maybe make some difficult decisions".
Isak is the easiest swap of the lot, replaced directly by Ekitike, albeit does not solves the solidity issues. Szoboszlai's running helps the efficiency of both Gravenberch and Alexis Mac Alister in midfield, meaning he cannot be sacrificed at right-back. If fit enough, Joe Gomez can shore up that right side or young Calvin Ramsay is an option while Conor Bradley is injured.
There is no direct replacement for Konate but Andy Robertson is surely a safer pair of hands than Milos Kerkez at this moment in time. Salah is the other bone of contention, unhelpful if not scoring goals. Slot could use Curtis Jones or Chiesa in his place, offering more protection to Gomez behind.
Liverpool travel to 17th-placed West Ham on Sunday, live on SportNews, and begin the weekend themselves in the bottom half of the table. As pressure mounts, Slot cannot afford to get this one wrong.
